Now that we’re in March, if you haven’t already adjusted your NBA wagering, you should (the top sportsbooks have) or you’ll be out for the rest of the regular season.
Though the NBA is marketed as a fantastic product that everyone should watch, only a few teams are capable of winning the championship.
The rest are there to appease different groups of fans by offering either hope for the future or the appearance of trying to win. The rest of the teams simply lose, and some of them frequently (looking at you Orlando Magic fans).
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While this may appear to be a harsh assessment of the NBA, an annual review of the standings demonstrates that it is correct. This is emphasized further by sportsbooks’ betting odds, such as those found here at OddsTrader. Let us expand on what we mean.
Sportsbooks No longer a shambles Around
Ten years ago, with the season about three-quarters over, oddsmakers would start putting a premium on NBA favorites around the first of March, if not a little earlier. At that point, they knew who the best and worst teams were, as well as the majority of the strengths and weaknesses of those in the middle.
This is not unique to the NBA; the same thing happens in baseball and hockey on a daily basis.
However, the NHL has a limited betting reach, and by September, college football and the NFL have surpassed most MLB bettors’ interest, despite the fact that these are primarily weekend sports.
More information: Best NBA Live Betting Strategies
Favorites that might have been a 6.5-point favorite in early January will be listed at -8.5 or -9 this time of year. Even someone who makes daily NBA picks in March and April will notice these changes and think to themselves, “No way (fill in the favorite) should be this big a favorite.”
They will immediately look for a reason or two why the oddsmakers are wrong and then shift their focus to the underdog. This is where it gets interesting for the above-average basketball bettor.
This person examines the underdog more closely and may see reasons to support this dog while also realizing there is justification for this team to be on the receiving end of so many points. After conducting extensive research, this bettor reluctantly admits the line is justified and moves on.
This has gotten even earlier in recent years, with books posting these types of lines as early as February. How can you counteract this?
Changing Your Betting Methods and Recognizing That This Happens Every Season
With these larger point spreads, it truly levels the playing field because you are asking bad teams to do good things despite what appear to be bloated numbers. If you’re betting, your best bet is to pick fewer games to wager on, such as more important games that affect playoff positioning, knowing that both teams have something to play for.
If you are one of those people who likes to play three or more games per day, now is the time to learn or improve a new skill.
Take, for example, betting totals. Start learning to become more skilled in totals betting if you are a casual totals bettor (less than 15% of your picks). It may take you two to three years to gain more knowledge and a higher success rate, but it will pay off in the end.
Some may wonder, “Aren’t totals affected this time of year as well?” Teams that score or allow a high volume of points are likely to continue playing that way, while clubs that struggle to score and allow fewer points will do the same. In general, you won’t have the spread bet’s uniqueness.
More here: How to Bet on Basketball Live
Another thing to think about is first-half wagers. This can be used on larger favorites, and if a team is known for getting off to a faster start or playing better in the second half than the first two quarters, this is a potential way to beat the books.
Bottom line, betting on any sport at OKBET Betting or other online sportsbook is always about making adjustments, and if you do, you can either make more money or save it.
Remember to return to our News, Tips, and Guide for more betting strategies. Good Luck!
