OKBET NFL Week 5 Betting: Steelers facing historic spread

After nine games with at least a touchdown NFL spread in the first four weeks, Week 5 currently has six such games. The season’s largest spread is in Buffalo, where the Bills are 14-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since 1969, Pittsburgh has not been such a big underdog. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, the Steelers have never been a 14-point underdog.

The Atlanta Falcons are the week’s second-largest underdogs. The Falcons are the only team unbeaten against the spread after four weeks. The Jacksonville Jaguars, on the other hand, have the highest cover margin. The Jaguars are the favorite this week for the first time since 2019. Despite losing eight straight head-to-head meetings, they are laying 7 points against the Houston Texans.

For the first time in history, two teams with winning records meet in London, but the spread suggests a mismatch. The New York Giants are an 8-point favorite over the Green Bay Packers. Teams favored by at least 7 points in international games are 7-0 ATS over the last 15 seasons (6-0 ATS in London).

Seasonal outcomes

Last week, underdogs were 8-7-1 ATS (35-25-3 ATS this season, .583)
Last week’s total was 8-8. (37-26-1 this season, .587)
Atlanta is 4-0 ATS.
The over is 4-0 in Detroit.

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos (-3.5).

Indy has gone under the total in nine straight games, including all four this season.
In its last seven games as an underdog, Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 overall (1-0 outright this season)
Under Frank Reich, Indianapolis is 16-10-1 ATS after a loss.
Denver is 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 7-12 ATS in its last 19 games as a favorite (9-10 SU).
Frank Reich is 11-6-2 ATS as a road underdog, with five consecutive wins (4-1 SU).
Indianapolis is the worst in the NFL at failing to cover games by 9.4 points per game.
In Thursday games since 2019, road teams are 32-21 ATS (27-26 SU). In Thursday games, the under is 30-23.
Unders in prime time are 9-4 this season and 98-72-3 since 2019.

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (-8). (London)

Teams favored by at least 7 points in international games are 7-0 ATS over the last 15 seasons (6-0 ATS in London).
Green Bay is 34-19 ATS under Matt LaFleur, the best mark in the league since 2019. They are 24-16 ATS as favorites, but 8-9 ATS as 7-point or greater favorites.
This season, New York is 2-0 as an underdog (+3.05 units).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills (-14)

Since 1969, Pittsburgh has been at least a 14-point underdog. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, Pittsburgh is the only team that has never been at least a 14-point underdog.
Pittsburgh’s largest underdog role since the merger is +13.5 against Dallas in Super Bowl XXX (which they lost by 10) and 12 points in last year’s wild-card game against Kansas City under Mike Tomlin.
Since Mike Tomlin’s arrival in 2007, Pittsburgh has gone 44-25-3 ATS as an underdog, ranking second in the league. They are 37-35 overall, the only team with a winning record during that time period.
When Ben Roethlisberger is not his quarterback, Tomlin is 11-2 ATS (7-6 SU) as an underdog of at least 3.5 points, and he is 7-1 ATS as a six-point underdog.
Josh Allen is 10-4-2 ATS as a 7-point favorite or greater, and he is 6-2-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
First-round quarterbacks making their first career NFL starts went 0-5 ATS last season.
This is the season’s largest spread so far. Green Bay had previously covered a 10.5-point spread against Chicago in Week 2.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5).

Under Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland is 7-12 ATS at home.
In conference games, Kevin Stefanski is 9-19 ATS.
Brandon Staley is 1-3 straight up and ATS as a road favorite, despite winning last week.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)

Jacksonville has lost three of its last four games as a favorite, with three of those losses coming against Houston.
Jacksonville hasn’t been a touchdown favorite since Week 8 of 2019 against the New York Jets (-7), when it also covered as a favorite.
Houston has won eight consecutive meetings (6-2 ATS).
Jacksonville has the NFL’s highest average cover margin (+14.3). This is the best start by any team in four games since San Francisco in 2019 (+15.3).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (-7).

Minnesota has now failed to cover three consecutive games.
Since the start of last season, Chicago is 4-12 ATS as an underdog. As an underdog, Justin Fields is 3-9 ATS.
Since 2020, Minnesota is 7-13 ATS as a favorite.
Four of the last five meetings have been covered by Minnesota.
Minnesota did not take a bye week after its game in London last week. Without taking a bye after their London games, teams are 2-3 outright and ATS.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots (-3)

This season, all four Detroit games have gone over the total. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 13-6 ATS as an underdog (11-2 ATS in past 13 games as underdog).
Detroit has covered six consecutive road games, but it is 0-10-1 in its last 11 road games (0-9-1 under Dan Campbell).
Bill Belichick is 60-33-1 ATS following a New England loss. He is only 12-12 ATS when coming off at least two consecutive losses (3-8 ATS without Tom Brady).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints (-5).

Under Pete Carroll, Seattle is 45-27-2 ATS as an underdog, including 16-8-1 ATS in the last five seasons.
Geno Smith has a career ATS record of 23-15, including a 10-2 ATS record in his last 12 starts and a 5-2 ATS record with Seattle.
Dennis Allen is 2-7 ATS as a favorite in his career (0-2 ATS with New Orleans).
Following its game in London last week, New Orleans did not take a bye. Without taking a bye after their London games, teams are 2-3 outright and ATS.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets (-3)

Miami is 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight meetings. Miami has covered four consecutive road meetings and ten of the last fourteen road meetings.
New York is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last six games after a win (1-4 under Robert Saleh).
Under Robert Saleh, New York is 3-7 ATS as a home underdog (1-6 ATS in past seven games).
Miami is 13-7 ATS as a favorite over the last five seasons.
New York is 6-18 ATS in division games over the last five seasons. During the same time period, Miami is 17-8-1 ATS against division opponents.
Teddy Bridgewater has a career ATS record of 42-21. (.667). That is the best mark in the Super Bowl era for any quarterback with at least 40 starts. He’s 5-2 ATS as a road favorite, but he’s only been a 3-point road favorite twice (2-0 ATS).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)

This season, Atlanta is 4-0 ATS as an underdog. Atlanta is the only team undefeated against the spread this season.
The total has been exceeded in seven of the last eight meetings.
Under Arthur Smith, Atlanta is 0-7 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS as a 7-point underdog.
Under Arthur Smith, Atlanta is 7-3-1 ATS on the road.
Tom Brady is 10-0 all-time and 9-1 ATS against Atlanta, including playoffs.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders (-2.5)

Tennessee is 8-14 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.
Washington has now failed to cover three consecutive games.
Seventeen of Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s 22 road starts have gone over the total.

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

Carolina is 3-15 against the spread in its last 18 games.
All four games in San Francisco have gone under the total. Since last season’s postseason,
San Francisco has lost seven consecutive games. Carolina has lost its last three games.
Carolina is 17-5 ATS against San Francisco all-time.

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams (-5)

Cooper Rush is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in his career. Only five quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era have started 5-0, both outright and ATS (Mike Kruczek,
Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes and Kyle Allen).
Dallas is 9-1 ATS on the road and 13-2 ATS in conference games since the start of last season.
Sean McVay is 16-9 ATS following a loss.
Dallas has won six straight games and is 6-1 ATS as a 3-7 point underdog under Mike McCarthy. Dallas is 5-0 without Dak Prescott in that spot.

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals

Since the start of last season, Arizona is 8-2 ATS as an underdog. However, both ATS defeats occurred at home (0-2). Under Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona is 20-10-1 ATS as an underdog.
Under Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona is 19-9 ATS in September/October (12-3 ATS in October).
Philadelphia has covered three consecutive games.

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Since last season, nine consecutive Cincinnati games have gone under the total, including playoffs.
Since 2019, when Lamar Jackson was in his first full season as a starter, Baltimore is 12-2-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.
As a road underdog, Cincinnati has covered four straight games.
Since the start of last season, including playoffs, the under is 10-2 in Cincinnati road games. In those games, Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS.
Unders in prime time are 9-4 this season and 98-72-3 since 2019.

Monday, 8 p.m. ET, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7). (ESPN)

The total has been exceeded in each of the last four meetings.
Patrick Mahomes is 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS against the Golden Knights.
Andy Reid has led Kansas City to a 34-21 ATS record in division games.
As a favorite, Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
Unders in prime time are 9-4 this season and 98-72-3 since 2019.
Underdogs are 87-69-3 ATS in Monday games over the last ten seasons, and underdogs of at least 7 points are 27-18-1 ATS.